At least half of county's 1.3 million voters expected to turn out

By: GIG CONAUGHTON - Staff Writer | Saturday, November 4, 2006 10:45 PM PST ∞

SAN DIEGO ----- If history is any indication, at least half of the county's 1.3 million registered voters can be expected to turn out Tuesday.

San Diego County Registrar of Voters Mikel Haas said Friday that in the last four gubernatorial general elections, voter turnout in San Diego County was roughly 57 percent in 1990; 58 percent in 1994; and 58 percent in 1998 ---- before dipping to 49 percent in 2002.

However, some suggest that California's turnout could be extremely low ---- even though experts say these might be the state's most important elections in decades, and questions about the war in Iraq are likely to drive huge numbers to the polls nationwide.

Meanwhile, recent polls show Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger with a big lead in the governor's race and suggest that voters are still unsure about a number of the 13 complicated propositions.

For example, the Field poll reported growing voter opposition to Proposition 87, the measure that would impose new state taxes on oil producers. Opposition to Proposition 90, the controversial measure that would limit government's ability to take people's private property through eminent domain, is also growing. And the poll showed a dead heat on Proposition 86, which would slap a new, $2.60 tax on a pack of cigarettes to boost funding for hospital emergency rooms ---- and to a lesser extent, community clinics and expanded health insurance for children.

Important, but voters disinterested

Last month, the San Francisco-based Public Policy Institute of California issued a report suggesting that the election could be among the most important in state history ---- primarily because of the $47.2 billion in bond measures that Schwarzenegger and the Legislature have placed on the ballot. But the institute also said voters seem disinterested.

The governor's infrastructure measures are asking voters to approve taking on billions of dollars in debt for everything from roadways across the state to Northern California levees, whose fragile state threatens water supplies.

Mark Baldassare, the institute's research director, could not be reached Friday for comment.

But he said in an Oct. 25 news release that only 19 percent of voters were paying close attention to election news, according to policy institute surveys.

Baldassare said that seeming lack of interest was similar to the disinterest voters reported in 2002 ---- right before a historically low 44.8 percent of voters statewide turned out.

Haas, meanwhile, said Friday that he never tries to predict turnout, and added that he was anxiously watching to see how many might vote, just like everybody else.

Haas said turnout in recent gubernatorial/general elections had hovered right around the 58 percent mark, before plunging to 49 percent locally in 2002.

He said the question now was whether 2002's turnout was an anomaly or the start of a trend.

"I have November 2006 as a big question mark," Haas said.

California lacks congressional tension

Jack Pitney, a professor of government from Claremont McKenna College near Los Angeles, said ---- like the California Public Policy Institute ---- that Californians had plenty of issues to draw them to the polls. But he said California lacks the kind of congressional race tension that exists in other places around the country.

Questions about the war in Iraq and President Bush's leadership are expected to draw large numbers of voters to congressional races.

"You might have higher turnout elsewhere, but not here in California," Pitney said. "Very, very few congressional districts are in play."

Pitney said that a few congressman, such as Rep. Richard Pombo, R-Stockton; Rep. John Doolittle, R-Rocklin; and "maybe" Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Escondido ---- who is running in the 50th District against Democrat Francine Busby ---- are being challenged.

"But all the others are baked in the cake," Pitney said.

Propositions still moving

The latest Field poll, meanwhile, reported some interesting shifts, and voter indecision, on a number of California's propositions, including:

- Growing voter opposition to Prop. 87, the measure that aims to impose new state taxes on oil producers. The poll reported that 44 percent would vote no on the measure, while 40 percent supported it ---- almost the exact opposite of results in late September, when 44 percent said they would vote yes, and 41 percent said they would vote no in a previous Field poll.

Proponents say the taxes would create money to promote alternative energy use and cut reliance on oil. Opponents say it would lead to higher gasoline prices.

- Slightly growing support for Proposition 85, the measure that would require doctors to tell parents or guardians of minors before abortions are performed, except in cases of medical emergency. The latest poll showed that 46 percent would vote yes, and 43 percent would vote no ---- although 11 percent were still undecided. One month ago, 44 percent said they would vote yes, while 45 percent said they would vote no.

Proponents say parents or adults should be included in the decision-making process when minors seek abortions. Opponents say the proposition could hurt teens and children who come from homes with parents who would physically abuse them or kick them out of the house if they are pregnant.

- Growing opposition to Prop. 90, the controversial eminent domain reform measure that would limit the ability of governments to take people's property for public projects.

In July, potential voters approved of Prop. 90 by a 46 percent to 31 percent margin. But the latest Field poll reported that only 35 percent of voters would vote for the measure, while 42 percent opposed it. However, the poll also reported that 23 percent of potential voters still didn't know how they would vote.

Prop. 90's proponents say voters should approve it to make sure that governments can never steal their land, homes, or property by abusing eminent domain ---- the long-standing practice of letting governments take private land for the "public good."

Opponents say the measure goes far beyond eminent domain reform and could cripple the ability of cities and counties to perform land-use planning duties ---- to manage development and growth.

- A dead heat on Prop. 86, which would impose a new $2.60 tax on a pack of cigarettes. Much of the money would be given to hospital emergency rooms. Smaller portions would go to community clinics and to expand health insurance for children.

The Field poll reported that 45 percent of potential voters approved of Prop. 86, and 45 percent opposed it, with 10 percent still undecided with a week left before Election Day.

For a full list of the propositions and more information, visit:

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2006/10/08/news/top_stories/22_10_4910_7_06.txt

Contact staff writer Gig Conaughton at (760) 739-6696 or gconaughton@nctimes.com.

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