Latest poll shows Bilbray far ahead of Busby

By: EDWARD SIFUENTES - Staff Writer | Saturday, November 4, 2006 10:45 PM PST

NORTH COUNTY ---- Poll numbers that showed Democrat Francine Busby closing in on incumbent U.S. Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Escondido, last month had her trailing far behind last week.

The race for the 50th Congressional District, which stretches from Escondido to Carlsbad and south to northern San Diego, has been one of the most closely watched races in North County this election season. And the two candidates have spiced the race hurling ethical allegations at one another in recent televised debates.

But a SurveyUSA telephone poll released Saturday reported that 55 percent of those polled would vote for Bilbray, and 41 percent for Busby. The survey of 550 likely voters had a plus-or-minus margin of error of 4.2 percent. The results are similar to those the New Jersey-based national polling company reported in September.

While criticizing Busby's campaign tactics, Bilbray brushed aside the survey saying he was focused on Tuesday's election.

"The poll that really matters is election night," he said. The poll shows that "you've got to have more to offer than just attacking the other person."

Busby's campaign also dismissed the survey and attacked Bilbray's campaign.

"The results of an automated poll at this late stage of the race, especially after 600,000 annoying robo calls from Bilbray, will tend to be inaccurate," Busby said in a statement read by her campaign press secretary. "We are focused on getting out the vote and look forward to a victory celebration Tuesday."

Bilbray defeated Busby by 4 percentage points in the June special election held to determine who would fill the 50th Congressional District seat. The special election was called after the resignation of former U.S. Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, who pleaded guilty last November to bribery and tax evasion. He was sentenced in March to more than eight years in prison.

Another poll by SurveyUSA released Oct. 17 reported that 49 percent of those questioned would vote for Bilbray and 46 percent for Busby. The polls were sponsored by KGTV Channel 10 in San Diego.

In a debate aired last Sunday, Bilbray said he had a letter from the San Diego County district attorney's office "responding" to a complaint that Busby had tried to solicit illegal immigrants to work on her campaign.

Busby said during the debate that she misspoke at an Escondido political forum she attended in June. At the event, she answered a question from a Spanish-speaking man who wanted to know how he could help with her campaign.

Meanwhile, Busby again slammed Bilbray with accusations that a federal grand jury was investigating allegations about where he lives.

Late last month, a man who lives next to Bilbray's mother in Carlsbad told reporters that he had been interviewed by the San Diego County grand jury about whether Bilbray lives at the mother's home, as he has stated in documents.

Bilbray said at the time that he had not been called to testify before a grand jury and had no knowledge as to whether such an investigation is ongoing. He attributed the allegations to a last-minute campaign smear.

On Saturday, Bilbray said he attributed the poll numbers to wide-ranging of support for his campaign among state, county and local leaders.

"When you've got the governor, (San Diego) Mayor Jerry Sanders, (San Diego County) Sheriff Bill Kolender, and (San Diego County) District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis, that's the kind of support that people in the district are looking for," Bilbray said.

Interviews for this month's SurveyUSA poll were conducted between Wednesday and Friday. Two percent of those polled said they would vote for Libertarian Paul King. The survey registered 0 percent support for Peace and Freedom Party candidate Miriam Clark. One percent of those polled said they were undecided.

Contact staff writer Edward Sifuentes at (760) 740-3511 or esifuentes@nctimes.com.

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37 comment(s)[-]Go to Top

Bilbray? Really?! wrote on Nov 5, 2006 12:01 AM:Wait are you talking about the carpet bagging lobbyist Bilbray or is there another one that entered the race that I didn't see? The only thing Bilbray is even running on is illegal immigration...what will happen once that horse is dead and we are left with a corrupt Cunningham replacement? To quote the Who..."Here comes the new boss. Same as the old boss"

Correlation wrote on Nov 5, 2006 12:27 AM:Congressman Bilbray's numbers shot up when he came out in support of Escondido's rental ban.

Busby... wrote on Nov 5, 2006 1:15 AM:can pretty much say goodbye to her 10 minutes of fame.... thank god!.... tuesday could not come any sooner.... then this will all be over!

survey hogwash: wrote on Nov 5, 2006 1:55 AM:550 voters? Don't believe it. It's like poulling socks out of a drawer: how many do you have to pull out to get a matching pair if you have only blue and brown socks? Vote for HONESTY: Busby will work for us, not for herself. Bilbray's 'higher' aspirations scare me and let me warn you, he'll not have time for US - Carlsbad is not his home - research it yourself. The 'support' he claims is only 'party' lines, not personal validation for the questionable character he claims. Attacks? The mailers from Bilbray et al have been disgusting. Utterly childish.

Randy wrote on Nov 5, 2006 3:33 AM:Bilbray will steamroll into office on his one-dimensional Illegal Immigration platform.

From Democrat-Robert wrote on Nov 5, 2006 3:46 AM:Why can I already hear my party claiming voter fraud? Wonder what will be the basis this time?? Congrats Rep Bilbray keep up the good work!

gimmeabreak wrote on Nov 5, 2006 5:28 AM:Horse hockey, Brian. People don't look at your endorsements and decide "you're the man." When you're Republican running in the land of the Cheese Sandwich Republicans you're going to get elected. Your opponent could be Albert Schweitzer and you'd still win. Too many of your "Supporters" look for the right label ("R") and cast their vote. That's how the lout you replaced was reflexively returned so frequently that he decided he had a license to steal. That's why you can just brush off the allegations that you've claimed three different residencies at different moments to gain benefits - nobody's gonna pay attention. Hey robo-voters. When ol' Brian gets caught elbow deep in the cookie jar, will you pay attention then? Didn't think so.

Brian wrote on Nov 5, 2006 6:22 AM:I had the chance to meet with Mr. Billbray recently. I was so dissappointed that he lack polish and has an abundance of arrogance. I wish Eric Roach had beat him in the primary. I have to vote for Busby, Billbray is not right for the job.

Go Home Bilbray! wrote on Nov 5, 2006 6:58 AM:Let's see, he has had over 26 years in politics to do something about illegal immigration...and what has he done? Nothing! So, after retiring from representing his home district in Congress, he is "lucky" that mom has an address in Puke Cunningham's district so he can "live" there and carpetbag for the blind conservative north county folks....what an opportunity! We are living in the age of the falling of America folks. Have you taken any note to the ballot this year? See what all of the State offices are doing? The Lt. Governor is running for Ins. commissioner, the attorney general is running for treasurer, the ins. commissioner is running for lt. governor....along with the Bush and Clinton political dynasties...we are living in an era of the useless bureaucratic regimes, not democracy as the Founding Father's envisioned. Make a change, people. Don't elect that Imperial Beach lifetime politico as our representative, for God's sake go out there and vote for a change before...well...it probably is anyway...too late!

dennis wrote on Nov 5, 2006 7:57 AM:To all you Busbyites out there....what few of you there are....get over it! Francine fried her rice when she gaffed and her true feelings about illlegal immigration came out. Maybe you could go with the DEM thing and say it was a " joke gone bad". That might clarify the situation. Or, you could try "it depends on what is is" That could do it. I like my cheese sandwiches , thank you very much, and do not intend to switch to tacos anytime soon.

Randy wrote on Nov 5, 2006 7:58 AM:Arrogance is one characteristic that all the San Diego County Republican members of the House of Representatives have in common!

victory to bilbray wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:09 AM:brian is gonna win by a mile because he favors cracking down on illegals first and for most and we need more americans like him to deport these illegal criminals and he is gonna do it little be little. thats why he will win because whos gonna vote for someone like busby who supports illegals and tells them you dont need papers to vote, not me. he is for the ordinance in escondido crackinig down on illegals and will clean up this city and resecure it for the future of our kids. we dont want illegals here and we dont need them. bilbray is a hero of the people and he will lead and others will follow.

El Jefe wrote on Nov 5, 2006 8:23 AM:What a bunch of sour pusses & sore losers. This is still a free country & each of us will vote according to our own conscience and perception of reality. Politics has always been so. The voter trends are simple enough to explain, Bilbray is ahead because of the unfortunate poor opposition candidate, Busby. Busby just does not have the appeal. Obviously a stronger, more effective candidate might have had a chance against Bilbray. As to the vision of the Founding Fathers not one Founding Father ever lived in California & most did not even live long enough to know it became a state. This dynamic country is in a constant state of flux & it seems the changes are accelerating beyond the comprehension of the older folk & their ability to cope or even accept change. Bilbray will win, Busby will lose. Get over it!

Busby Bashers Welcome wrote on Nov 5, 2006 9:33 AM:Pathetic how Busby can all-knowingly declare the poll numbers "inaccurate" due to "annoying robo calls" and because its a "late stage of the race". Because its late, the poll is likely going to more accurate than ever. If she had her more funding for her own robo calls from her H.S. graduate base, all of sudden those calls would be a 'progressive' tactic. Bye bye Busby, you annoying robotic liberal mouthpiece.

Go Brian! We need more wrote on Nov 5, 2006 11:21 AM:legislators who will stand up and fight ILLEGAL immigration! We need NO legislators who invite illegals to vote and work on her campaign.

Go Left wrote on Nov 5, 2006 11:34 AM:Sure let's keep another dishonest politician in office. God is finally making people wake up to realize they are frauds, just like Bilbraay is and will always be. We need to elect those who will demonstrate a positive change. I wonder what else Bilbray has hidden in his closet? All the other republicans are started to bear all theirs. Vote Busby, it's time for a change to the right side by voting for those on the left.

Momo wrote on Nov 5, 2006 11:44 AM:So the Survey USA poll called 550 people of "likely" voters with a 4.2% margin of error...this poll is hogwash. There were a lot of non partisan people (basically the swing vote) that stayed home last time. The question is will they stay home again or turn out. The bottom line I think will be turn out. The sample of 550 is just too small to predict considering that registered Republicans number 159,875 with 107,026 Democrats as of Dec. 1 2005. The number registered as nonpartisan was put at 77,377 by the registrar's office. Given the disappointment with some Republicans with their own party you may see a shift of less votes on the Republican column. So we'll all have to just wait and see.

morty wrote on Nov 5, 2006 12:14 PM:I voted thursday i hope all the legal voters get out and vote.i can truely say my mom and at least 3 grandmas were born here.;in minn.

NO MORE PHONE CALLS wrote on Nov 5, 2006 12:17 PM:NO MORE PHONE CALLS!!!

I said it... wrote on Nov 5, 2006 12:22 PM:Voting for the lesser of two evils...is still evil.

gimmeabreak wrote on Nov 5, 2006 12:51 PM:gee, thanks, Dennis, you proved the point. Whatever goes wrong in CheeseSandwichville, it's Clinton's fault. All else that needs to be said is: "Those weapons of mass destruction must be around here somewhere . . . nope, no weapons here, maybe . . . over there" and a thousand others from the Gaffer-in-chief. The CA-50th: Rated "R" for recidivist robotic-reflexives re-electing reactionary, reality-challenged Republicans.

Focus on the future wrote on Nov 5, 2006 1:08 PM:Regardless of who wins, it's up to us to keep pressure on our elected officials to achieve our goals for this region. Don't blame Busby for being lackluster and lacking substance, blame the DNC for considering her as viable, but only for a moment. As it is now typical, there will undoubtedly be an outcry for a recount if it is even remotely close. More wasted money and time. The next congressional session will be extremely important for the future of our nation and especially the future of the southwest. We're all in this together, except for Francine and the illegal sympathizer's. Do I sound disenfranchised and frustrated with my party? This will be my first time voting for a local Republican representative. I hope some substantive changes occur in the next year

Observant wrote on Nov 5, 2006 1:11 PM:Bilbray will probably win, since so many North County voters pay little attention to the news. Unfortunately, he will then be indicted for perjury and election fraud for making false sworn statements about his residency. When he resigns his office and goes to jail, then we will get to have YET ANOTHER expensive special election to fill the office. The dumbest thing about this is that there is no residency requirement for a House Seat: Bilbray could have listed his Imperial Beach house or his Virginia house on those forms, but it "looked better" politically to claim a residence in the district. Opportunist? Carpet-bagger? Perjurer? Idiot? Yep, pretty much.

JoAnn wrote on Nov 5, 2006 3:40 PM:Bilbray will win because of his stand on illegal imigration alone. There are too many of us Republicans and Democrats included in this very Blue state that are fed up with our federal government including Bush's inaction to protect our borders. Francine is too weak on immigration. That is why she will lose. Period. I don't care where he "offically" lives. I want him in Washington anyway. So Francine supporters, it is over.

Carlsgood wrote on Nov 5, 2006 4:05 PM:The gerrymandered 50th district will enable Bilbray to squeeze into office although 70% feel that the Republican controlled congress and White House are incompetent at governing but brilliant at getting power at the ballot box. No matter. Bilbray will be in the minority party and subject to oversight his party refused to exercise in definace of the wisdom of the Constitution. No matter. Its too late to reverse 80 years of poor choices by both parties. Deflation, crash and depression are coming. History doesn't repeat, it paraphrases.

Duke the Second wrote on Nov 5, 2006 4:37 PM:SERIOUSLY?! What does it take for you people to learn not to vote for corrupt lobbyists?! Was Cunningham not enough?!

El Jefe wrote on Nov 5, 2006 4:43 PM:This is all so much fun and super entertaining too! Here we all are sitting at our computers on the Sunday before the erection & there are those who claim "no one reads the news" and that is why Francine will lose. Then there are those who claim " .. the other party is arrogant". "Bilbray did everything wrong & will win for all the wrong reasons." Dissatisfaction reigns supreme! Right or wrong Bilbray will win. How simple can it be? He needed better, more convincing opposition, period. Someone will run this o'l gal again for something, maybe dog catcher & maybe she will finally win. It just seems that people don't understand she is just a plain un-attractive candidate & does not come across in a winsome fashion for the "majority" of folks. The North County is changing & there is a new majority in the making. Why did Busby not win before? Trust me, she won't win again. Whatever money she still has in her war-chest she should contribute to a viable candidate & finally walk away. Maybe pay someone to pick up the litter of her campaign signs?

Bill2 wrote on Nov 5, 2006 4:44 PM:I said it... wrote "Voting for the lesser of two evils...is still evil." Would you rather have us not vote at all? What kind of hidden agenda is behind THAT thinking. We have little choice BUT to pick the lesser of the two major evils - a vote for a third party is a vote wasted. Protest votes mean nothing to the politicians. I have heard many times that BOTH major parties provide monetary support to splinter party rivals to pull votes from their rivals. When are the parties going to give us candidates who are willing to work for the benefit of the PEOPLE?

viva la migra wrote on Nov 5, 2006 4:58 PM:On the issue of gerrymandering: I've lived in the same house for 14 years. Bilbray was my Congressman for 6 of those years in the 53rd District. The Dems gerrymandered me into the 50th district. Now Bilbray is my Congressman again. Half of this District used to be Bilbray's old district. How does that make him a carpetbagger? "You don't need papers" Busby doesn't represent the majority sentiment of this district.

bvv wrote on Nov 5, 2006 5:36 PM:Illegal immigration is a "one dimensional" issue? It touches every aspect of our lives from the environment to schools, to hospitals, to traffic congestion to water/sewer/electrical capacity ... well, just everything. One post said "after immigration "horse is dead". HUH? Do yo mean after the wall is build, after employers are fined for hiring illegals, after the 14th Amendment is no longer missapplied making children born to illegal aliens citizens? Please don't hold your breath waiting for this "dead horse" to lie down. It stinks, but it's far from dead

Time for a change wrote on Nov 5, 2006 7:51 PM:Forget the personal qualities of Bilbray or Busby. The real issue is: do we want change in Congress? A vote for Bilbray is a vote for stay the course. A vote for Busby is a vote for change. Maybe the Dems will do better and maybe they won't. But how can we expect the gang that got us into all this mess to get us out?

Zack wrote on Nov 5, 2006 9:21 PM:Like so many of my friends and colleagues, I'm a one issue voter against the illegal immigrant invasion. We don't care if Bilbray has 50 homes in 50 states, because it's irrelevant. It's time for Aunt B to accept the will of the people in the 50th District, and seek employment elsewhere.

Vista John wrote on Nov 6, 2006 10:11 AM:To bad we didn't have a better Independant to vote for. The Dem's want Illegal aliens to have a free pass they will never win this race on that.

Turncoat wrote on Nov 6, 2006 11:45 AM:Once Bilbray figured out that the illigal immigration issue might be a problem for him he switched sides and took a safer stance of supporting Escondido's ordinance. How much more of this typical fair weather politicing should we expect? 100%?

Susan wrote on Nov 6, 2006 6:51 PM:Vote For A Change!

dennis wrote on Nov 7, 2006 6:17 AM:TO "gimmeabreak": Well, thanks for your comments anyway. I'm not sure what your psyco-babbling meant, but obviously you are not a happy camper in Cheesesandwichville. My only helpful advice would be to get your DEM butt out of the area...maybe SF would be a good stop for you. There you could have such elected notables as Nancy " The Socialist" Pelosi and others of her ilk. You would be happy there ...they serve quiche and tacos galore! Meanwhile, here in SD CO we will continue to elect those who reflect our values, morals, and standards. And enjoy our cheese sandwiches immensely.

morty wrote on Nov 8, 2006 8:31 AM:yey how about that my vote did count.

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