Jeff wrote on Mar 8, 2008 7:08 AM:I think these people are delusional and are indulging in severe wishful thinking. The numbers don't lie and the media just reports them. There is another wave of foreclosures coming this year which will drive the market down further. I live in a 55+ new home development I purchased for $400 thou in 06. The builder is now selling a larger model for $275 thou with more upgrades. The development is one-third built and all new building is on indefinite hold.

Big-D wrote on Mar 8, 2008 10:22 AM:Why even print what a realtor has to say on the outlook for real estate, they have no credibility. I partiality blame the realtors for the mess the market is in now. They pushed people into buying homes they could not afford, just to make a buck and now their crying the blues because they killed off the golden goose. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know the market has a long way to fall and no matter how many "positive" stories the paper writes will change that.

Dave wrote on Mar 8, 2008 12:52 PM:"George Chamberlin, a panelist at the event and [syndicated] columnist [in] the North County Times, said that some news reporters biased their reports because they are jealous of homeowners."

Were those the same news reporters that were hyping real estate in the media before the bubble burst? That's a rhetorical question. This is one of the most absurd claims - and George makes a lot of them - that I've seen from that asshat.

George Chamberlin is a freaking clown and a financial dunce. Anyone that listens to that dunce deserves to lose money.

damon wrote on Mar 8, 2008 2:35 PM:more selling (lying) credit getting tighter . where are the qualified buyers going to come from saudi arabia ?

Joe wrote on Mar 8, 2008 4:23 PM:The real question do people actually pay money to bring in a George Chamberlin? If you headed his advise you would be in big trouble. Real estate agents need to get down to maybe 50 bucks an hour for their "services".

bill wrote on Mar 8, 2008 6:34 PM:‘John Tuccillo, a former Realtors’ chief economist, was considerably harsher. ‘The system stinks because on the front end of the market are people who close the loans and walk away with no responsibility and pocket their checks,’ he told an audience of Realtors during a presentation, drawing a round of applause.”

‘Why are you clapping?’ he asked. ‘I’m including you.’

bill wrote on Mar 8, 2008 6:36 PM:“Most real estate agents who spoke at the conference seemed to agree, with one agent suggesting that agents and builders pull all advertising from newspapers until positive articles are printed.”

Like a 3-year-old throwing a temper tantrum by holding his/her breath. The kid just needs a few whacks on the rear end.

bill wrote on Mar 8, 2008 6:41 PM:“George Chamberlin, a panelist at the event and columnist for the North County Times, said that some news reporters biased their reports because they are jealous of homeowners.”

...bitter because they're not a couple hundred thousand dollars underwater and facing foreclosure

bill wrote on Mar 8, 2008 6:44 PM:Didn’t the NAR threaten to stop donating to Congress a couple of months ago, too?

These threats are pretty dumb. They may as well send out a press release saying: we are dishonest and trying to rig the system.

Susan wrote on Mar 8, 2008 8:56 PM:Sounds like there are a lot of disgruntled people, what about the happy people who are glad they bought their homes and have benefited from them in their lives and got good places to live and will make money from them in the future? Or are making a profit now even? The foreclosure rates are sensationalized with the statistics when "5% of the homeowners may be losing their homes, most of the other 95% probably feel significantly richer."

Dr.Bean wrote on Mar 8, 2008 9:30 PM:
When houses become affordable again people will buy them again. Its like realtors just dont seem to understand this simple fact. They seem to be doing everything possible to prop up prices. All this will do is keep the sales rate in the toilet and make a lot of realtors very very poor. Let the prices correct (as in a return to affordable) then they might actually start selling a few.

House prices cannot continually outpace inflation. If they did no one would be able to afford one. We do everything we can to make sure our children succeed in life. We save to send them to college so they can earn decent salaries. But then we all cheer when house prices shoot up and many of us want to see the madness continue. This would ensure all our children live with us forever, rent or have to move to some god forsaken place like Barstow. A house is a place to LIVE. Its not your nest egg. If you want your children and grand children to have one then dont expect these ridiculous gains.

zk wrote on Mar 8, 2008 10:13 PM:Realtors have been wrong every time they've predicted anything for the last several years. 5 years ago, they said prices would keep going up. Then, 4 years ago, when prices leveled off briefly, they said they'd start back up again soon. Then, when prices started down, realtors said that we'd hit bottom. Then, when prices went down further, realtors said we'd hit bottom (again). Every month or two since, they've said we've hit bottom. And prices keep falling. Why would anyone believe them now? Realtors will keep telling the gullible masses that we've hit bottom until we actually do. George Chamberlin is ... wrong more often than GW Bush. Why is this ... news outlet still quoting Chamberlin and the realtors?

NC Watcher wrote on Mar 9, 2008 8:21 AM:My brother is a Real Estate broker in another state nearby and at their last Board of Realtor's meeting the board leaders told the brokers the same pack lies, multi offers on homes, prices are rising, the market is turning around. As my brother said it was a pack of lies he was being told because the facts and reality was 100% different from the deception the leaders were trying to spin to the audience. Lies, lies, lies and everybody knows it.

right on Dr Bean wrote on Mar 9, 2008 8:40 AM:yeah Barstow or maybe Lancaster!! The prices were over inflated in So. Ca. for SO LONG. What goes up- must come down. To reality. Everything is going up except people's wages. No one seriously listens to realtors anymore. If you research the paperwork required, you can buy/sell without THEM! Let them all have their lil meeting and wish for the "good ol days".

George wrote on Mar 9, 2008 8:46 AM:Do you really think that people who make a living from selling homes will tell you not to buy, because the market will continue to drop for however long?

Realtor wrote on Mar 9, 2008 9:00 AM:They're not making any more land! There's going to be a shortage! Now is the time to buy! Hurry up, I need my commission!

Rob wrote on Mar 9, 2008 9:09 AM:I'm a realtor in the Temecula Valley, and I can tell you we are seeing the bottom of the market. But that bottom is in terms of demand, not prices. There is a difference. However, you can currently find homes 15%-20% below market value now. How much lower do you think the market will go? If you have done the math and see that you can be in an equity positive position today, e-mail me and we'll go look at houses! Unless you have 20% down or more, you won't be able to compete when the "bottom" truly arrives. And wait until you see what's left to buy at the "bottom."

HMMM wrote on Mar 9, 2008 9:39 AM:seems to me that some realtors got a hold of some cheap weed right before their meeting and indulged. The rest of us sane and sober people know the truth - the fall is far from over.

Mike S wrote on Mar 9, 2008 5:22 PM:Silly realtors, guess econ 101 had too much math.

Market price = market value

catchphrases like "below market value" are nonsensical--just like present prices. Home prices still are easily 20% overvalue in the IE, and certainly worse in San Diego, OC and LA.

While I don't enjoy watching folks suffer, I also didn't enjoy the gloating and arrogance of those who borrowed themselves into their self-made mess. Perhaps a couple realtors were actually intelligent enough to save for a rainy couple of years.

Mike S.

Austiran School wrote on Mar 10, 2008 9:03 AM:Rob, you sound sincere but I guess thats the trademark of a good salesman. 15% or 20% down isn't below market, its just teh next step in the market as it corrects to sustainable pricing for those outlying areas. What the h*ll are you taking about being in an equity position today? Peopla are getting creamed out there, you have no idea. The best way to make a small fortune in real estate right now is to start with a large fortune.

That Chamberlin guy is funny. The realtors will be rolling back advertising on their own because the market will be in hibernation until prices finally settle out. They're just trying to coerce favorable media treatment for an action that is already going to happen.

The one thing I do actually agree with them on is the banks need to be responsive to short and REA sales. this is the process by which the market restores its health and the realtors can actually start to see some volume of sales again.

YGMMLMM wrote on Mar 10, 2008 5:16 PM:What? They have got to be kidding?

Happy Renter wrote on Mar 11, 2008 3:29 PM:That's assinine. Why would banks delay a recovery, so they can hold on to an REO longer?

Lol @ George Chamberlain, this guy is a load. Read my name. Jealous of what, upside down equity? Trapped in a mortgage? Insolubility? No more flipping? No more transactions? Downsized brokerage firms and RE agencies? Job loss?

Asking realtors if RE will go up is like asking a used car salesman if the car runs well.

This article is ill-based, unbacked propaganda to artificially prop up prices by making people feel good.

The bubble popped. Get out now and let people like GC cry all the way to the back of the unemployment line.

Jim wrote on Mar 14, 2008 10:50 AM:I am playing the worlds tinniest violin for the real estate agents. They will say anything to get uninformed buyers to plunge into the market just so they can make a commission for doing next to nothing. Go look at the site of piggington to see where we are headed. Please do your own research before buying instead of listening to the talking heads - it's your money at risk.

W.C. wrote on Mar 15, 2008 6:22 PM:Thanks for a good laugh, Chamberlin.

Chris wrote on Mar 15, 2008 10:50 PM:I'm a licensed real estate agent, and in my opinion, the most activity is with the foreclosures and short sales. In addition, prices will keep coming down. It is simple supply and demand, ECONOMICS 101. Inventory is a leading indicator, and we are at all time highs. Prices have started to come down, but will come down more over the next 1 to 2 years as more homes come on the market and to drain the growing supply. In addition, free money is gone; therefore, less demand because people can't buy homes without asset, salary verification, and money down. There will be major losses in equity and/or being upside down in your house. Banks will be working through foreclosures and short sales for a couple years. So, increased inventory (leading indicator) will lead to decreased prices (lagging indicator). We still have as of March 2008, an oversupply of inventory from Los Angeles to Las Vegas to Phoenix to San Diego. Prices will continue to come down. Realtors are trying to counterbalance what the media is saying, but facts are facts, and sales volume is down and inventory is up. So, opinions are opinions and facts are facts, like we were taught in elementary school. Realtors are foreclosing on their homes and investments left and right because sales have decreased and so has their income. Some realtors are trying to rent out their homes to make it through the downturn. Many are looking for other jobs. Facts are Facts and the bottom does not appear to be near. Economy is in or will be in a recession. Jobs losses will increase, consumer spending will be curtailed, wage growth will most likely remain stagnant. Wait till Fall of 2008 and even through 2009 till the Fall of 2009. REO pricing will lead the way. You may even find deals now, but be careful. Look at the 2000-2002 pricing for an idea of pricing comps. Good luck and be careful!

Chris wrote on Mar 15, 2008 11:23 PM:Also, I wanted to add that I recently talked with a Wells Fargo Mortgage Broker, and they have San Diego listed as a distressed area, in that, the value of the home is most likely, worth much less than current comps and continues to decrease. They are being very cautious of valuations/appraisals in San Diego.

DeBunker wrote on Mar 16, 2008 7:13 AM:The bottom in the RE market is a long ways off, judging from these con artists and hacks such as George Chamberlin. Grief follows 5 stages: 1) denial, 2) anger, 3) bargaining, 4) depression, 5) acceptance. I think we're somewhere between stage 1 and 2.

Alf wrote on Mar 16, 2008 8:32 AM:Well, "DeBunker" at 7:13AM, the one who is either in a complete state of denial or is so used to his own lies that he actually believes them is "we are not headed for a recession" GWB. Regards, Alf.

James wrote on Mar 26, 2008 8:26 AM:Realtors - Can you try being real?

Headlines
March 26, 2008
"New home sales hit 13-year low in February, prices drop 2.7 percent"

Even the National Association of Realtors has corrected the outlook for 2008:
February 7, 2008
The Realtors, in its monthly economic and sales outlook, is forecasting a 1.2% drop in prices of existing homes sold this year.

Only a month ago, the association was forecasting that prices would be flat in 2008 and that the home market would rebound in the last half of the year.

The group was forecasting that the first quarter would see a record 5.3% drop from year ago levels. Now it's expecting the current quarter to see even a larger decline in prices of 6.1%.

Last year, when the median price slipped 1.4 from 2006 levels, was the first on record that the Realtors recorded full-year decline in existing home prices.

The group is also forecasting a 4.8% decline in the number of existing homes sold this year. A month ago it was still forecasting a 0.9% pickup in the sales. Existing home sales plunged 12.8% in 2007, according to the group's figures.

"We're seeing a pattern that is consistent with skimming along the bottom of the cycle, and sales could ease modestly," said Lawrence Yun, the group's chief economist, in a statement.

The Realtors forecast further decline in sales and prices even though it projects the overall U.S. economy will stay out of recession. It expects gross domestic product, the broad measure of the nation's economic activity, to show 1.2% growth in the first quarter and 2.2% growth in the second quarter.

Albert wrote on Mar 27, 2008 6:46 AM:Housing prices have to drop to a point that an average working person can buy. In California that historically has meant 3 to 5 times median income. Median income was about $62.000 a year in 2007. Currently median house costs about $405,000. That means another 25% drop in the next 12 to 18 months.All markets correct. Realtors should come to grips with the current situation. If you want to sell a home, then list the home at a price that it will sell. You can stay in lalaland and beleive that you home is worth what is was a year ago. It is not.

John wrote on May 12, 2008 5:58 PM:"How much lower do you think the market will go? If you have done the math and see that you can be in an equity positive position today, e-mail me and we'll go look at houses! Unless you have 20% down or more, you won't be able to compete when the "bottom" truly arrives. And wait until you see what's left to buy at the "bottom.""

Um, Rob, you really need to have a chat with Chris (above) to learn the reality of the situation. And those of us who don't buy your BS also know that the "bottom" isn't a single moment in time, but rather a long, wiggly line that can last for years. The RE market turns like a crippled aircraft carrier, and we've got all the time in the world. Some might time it just right, but buying 1-5% above the bottom is fine by us, whether it's on the way down or back up. It's buying at 30% above it, like you'd love for us to do, that is out of the question.

I've got cash waiting to put 20% down on one 5/3 for residence and one 4/2.5 for rental in Temecula, maybe as soon as this winter, but not before. Which RE agent do you suppose I'll choose to work with - the one spinning the same tired lies, or the honest one?